Northern Michigan is shifting out of a La Niña weather pattern that has influenced conditions for the past six to seven months and is moving into ENSO-neutral through March and the beginning of April, a transition he said could set the stage for El Niño later this year.
According to Meteorologist Michael Stevens, the move toward neutral means Northern Michigan could still see cooler-than-normal air along with additional snow and moisture in the next few months, while a more active moisture track continues to favor the eastern United States and the East Coast with repeated nor’easter setups.
Stevens said La Niña typically brings cooler-than-normal temperatures for Northern Michigan, with weather systems feeding in from the northwest and more moisture overall, though he noted that does not automatically mean more snow than normal because some systems can also pull in warmer air and produce rain.
He said El Niño tends to be a warmer pattern for the northern half of the United States, including Northern Michigan, with drier-than-normal conditions locally, while the southern United States is typically cooler and wetter with a stronger moisture feed.
ENSO-neutral is the period between El Niño and La Niña and can last three to six months. He said the current setup includes normal trade winds and near or slightly below normal water temperatures, with previously cooler equatorial Pacific temperatures trending toward average and even a little above average.
Based on those signals, Stevens said conditions could eventually shift toward El Niño by the end of summer and into fall, which would support warmer weather in Northern Michigan going into fall and next winter.
Hurricane activity in the Pacific and Caribbean during neutral is expected to be near normal, not leaning above or below normal.
Looking ahead, Stevens said spring in Northern Michigan should be “pretty average,” with enough moisture to keep conditions around average and temperatures gradually warming.
The beginning portions of summer could be wetter while temperatures stay fairly average, but by late summer — around August, September and October — it could turn very hot and very dry as the pattern trends toward El Niño.