LANSING — While racking up visits from presidential and vice presidential nominees and drawing in tens of millions for a competitive senate race, Michigan voters should also keep their attention on control of the US House, which the state will likely play a hand in deciding.
“Michigan really could be a majority maker for one of the two parties,” said David Dulio, an Oakland University political science professor. “I think we have, in Michigan, the most interesting mix of competitive races up and down the ticket of any state in the country.”
Of the country’s 435 seats, two of the top 20 most competitive are in Michigan, said Matt Grossmann, an MSU political science professor.
Mid-Michigan’s 7th District is being opened by Democrat Elissa Slotkin, a three-term representative who is running for the state’s open US Senate seat. Former state lawmakers Tom Barrett, a Republican who represented Charlotte, and Curtis Hertel, a Democrat who represented East Lansing, are vying for the Lansing-area district, which includes more Democratic urban centers and more Republican rural communities.
“There’s no reason to believe that the 7th or the 8th won’t be razor thin right up until all the votes are counted,” Dulio said.
The neighboring 8th District stretches from Genessee County to eastern parts of Midland County and will see another open race with two strong candidates. Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet is facing Paul Junge, a former prosecutor, news anchor and Republican candidate for congress in 2020 and 2022.
“Those districts are more likely to reflect the national patterns,” Grossmann said. “They’ll have no incumbency bonus, and so whoever wins the presidential election in those districts is likely to win the House elections.”
Both of northern Michigan’s congressional seats are considered safe Republican holds, likely continuing the tenure of Rep. Jack Bergman in the 1st District and Rep. John Moolenaar in the 2nd District.
Analysts also suggested voters keep an eye on the 3rd District race — where first-term Democrat Hillary Scholten is facing a challenge from Republican Paul Hudson — and the 10th district, where congressman and former US Senate candidate John James is facing a rematch from Democrat Carl Marlinga.
The 3rd and 10th Districts are on the “outer edges of competitiveness nationwide,” Grossmann said.
“Those districts are districts that you would watch if there’s a national majority for one party,” he added.
Analysts say that data is limited on congressional district trends, but democrats may be moving closer to a lead given increased enthusiasm in recent weeks.
“The world is looking maybe not like it’s completely leaning to democrats right now, but the momentum is on the Democrats’ side, and that’s a real worry for Republicans,” said John Sellek, CEO of Harbor Strategic. “They’re going to depend on the top of the ticket.”