President-elect Donald Trump’s political comeback was seen first-hand in Michigan, where the former president’s vote share increased in nearly all corners of the state.
“When you see these moves across the board, they feel like they’re being driven by economic unhappiness, economic discontent,” said Dante Chinni, a Michigan State University political researcher.
With 99% of Michigan’s votes counted as of Friday, Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris by about 82,000 votes, or 1.5% out of 5.5 million votes cast.
“At the end of the day, a change election favors the challenger. And that was Trump,” said David Dulio, an Oakland University political science professor.
Trump increased both his Michigan vote total and vote percentage over 2016 and 2020, twice flipping the swing state back from Democratic hopefuls.
Experts say the win is the result of increased margins in rural areas and smaller losses in urban centers.
“Nearly every part of the country became more republican in 2024 compared to 2020,” Dulio said.
According to the Associated Press, 78 of Michigan’s 83 counties shifted right or stayed the same compared to 2020. Trump increased his margin of support in most Northern Michigan counties by around 2-4 points, showing that the campaign was able to further mobilize conservative voters in already-Republican areas.
“You see that a lot in northern Michigan and other parts of Michigan, where, in places like Emmet County and Otsego County and Charlevoix County getting another 600, 800 votes in those counties — that can ramp up his support,” said Scott LaDeur, a North Central Michigan College political science professor.
There were two notable exceptions in the region — Grand Traverse and Leelanau Counties. Both of these counties broke about 1% more Democratic, increasing the Democratic vote margin by over 1,800 votes.
Still, the gains were not enough to make up eroding Democratic support in more suburban counties downstate.
“When you look at places like Oakland County and Washtenaw County, maybe if you classify Kent County and its suburbs of Grand Rapids, able to narrow some of [Harris’s] margins there and still lose those counties, but lose them by less,” LaDeur said.
In Wayne County — home to Detroit and Dearborn — Harris lost nearly 60,000 votes compared to President Joe Biden, while Trump gained 24,000 over his own 2020 performance. If all other counties voted the same as they did in 2020, Wayne County’s difference alone would have been enough for Trump to take the state.
The experts cautioned against making final conclusions based on current data, since votes and public opinions are still being analyzed. Still, they say Michigan remains a swing state that will be fought over for years to come.
“If you really like political ads, if that’s something that you enjoy, you’re in a really good state, because you’re going to keep getting them,” Chinni said. “It’s going to stay swinging”
Trump won Michigan along with Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat who took Michigan’s open Senate seat by about 20,000 votes. That outcome, plus Michigan’s zig-zagging presidential politics since 2012, shows that the state is still very much up for grabs.